Cramer and courage

Last night I watched some on-line vids of John Stuart lambasting CNBC and especially Cramer the so-called expert advice that they give on investing. Besides being quite humorous, it shows just how clueless people are when it comes to economic futures. It also shows how there's such a herd mentality in the economy.

To join the members of the truely clueless, I'm going to give my interpretation of the economic future. It's simple, so it must be wrong. My claim is that the economic future will largely be based on what a large portion of the population thinks it is. The stock market has some real deals out there but continues to go down because people of lost their confidence in the stock market. If people had confidence in the markets, they'd go up because there would be demand for the stock. Now there's just the opposite. People not only don't want their stocks, but are willing to take large losses just to get rid of them. This same behavior has extended to the housing markets, banking, and businesses. There's a perception that things are only going to get worse, habits are changed, commerce reduces, so things get worse. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Maybe that's why the government tracks consumer confidence so closely.

Now that I've stuck my neck out, I'll go as far as to get it chopped; I'll propose a solution. It's called courage. Have courage to purchase stocks in companies that you admire, even though it's down 50% (or more) from its high. Have courage to say to your employer that there's a need to consider adding people, even though the ROI isn't as clear as it once was. Have courage to spend some money, even though you're afraid that a rainy day might be coming. Finally, have the courage to say that you're optimistic about the future, even outside polite company. Maybe some of this courage will rub off to others.